How Minus-Two Formula Failed

In 2007, an attempt was made to introduce a “new form” of politics in Bangladesh by removing the top leadership of the country’s two major political parties. This endeavour became known in political circles as the “Minus Two Formula.”

The first hints of removing the two top leaders came from the then-ambassadors of the United States and the United Kingdom. A US embassy cable titled “AMBASSADOR AND BRITISH HIGH COMMISSION MET WITH SHEIKH HASINA REGARDING MILITARY COUP” revealed that, in a conversation with Sheikh Hasina on January 6, US Ambassador Patricia A. Butenis and UK High Commissioner Anwar Chowdhury had informed her that some leaders of her party, the Awami League, and the BNP had proposed to the embassies that she and her “arch-rival” Khaleda Zia be forced to leave the country.

Hasina largely dismissed the reports and even joked that exile in the United States would allow her to see her granddaughter. She further stated that if the military can intervene and “make things okay,” that would be good.

Seven days later, a bloodless military coup led to the formation of a new government and the initiation of the “Minus Two” formula.

Two months after the formation of the new government, in early March, Khaleda Zia’s elder son and BNP leader Tareque Rahman was arrested. A week later, Sheikh Hasina left for the United States “to spend time with her son, daughter-in-law, and granddaughter” on March 14, 2007. Before leaving, she stated that she had not been forced to leave the country for an “indeterminate period” and that the “joint forces were doing a very good job.” Although she did not specify how long she would stay, her press secretary said, “About a month.”

Efforts then began to force Khaleda Zia to leave the country. She was pressured to go to Saudi Arabia. When she refused after hours of meetings on the night of April 15, her younger son Arafat Rahman was arrested. The following morning, The Daily Star published a report titled “Arafat ‘picked up’ in late night raid.” Simultaneously, newspapers began publishing reports about Arafat Rahman’s alleged corruption.

Sources within the military indicated that Khaleda Zia had agreed to leave the country with Arafat Rahman. Shortly thereafter, Arafat Rahman was released. On April 17, The Daily Star published two front-page reports: “Khaleda agrees to fly out with Arafat” and “Arafat released after quizzing over graft.”

However, after Arafat Rahman’s release, Begum Khaleda Zia declared that she would stay in the country no matter what.

In this context, the then-Director General of the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), Brigadier General Chowdhury Fazlul Bari, told author and researcher Mahiuddin Ahmed in an interview: “Later, she (Khaleda Zia) said I won’t go. Then Major Akhtar said, Madam, you must stay here. Whatever it is, the arrangement to force her out could not be made. How can she (Hasina) let her score in an open field? Then, Sheikh Hasina also started trying to return. To prevent this, various letters were written from the Home Ministry.”

With Khaleda Zia’s decision, the Minus Two Formula failed miserably.

Upon hearing the news that Khaleda Zia was not leaving the country, Sheikh Hasina, who had spent more than a month in the United States, began trying to return to the country as quickly as possible and boarded a flight from London on April 21. Earlier, on April 18, the government had issued a press note banning Sheikh Hasina from returning to the country.

On April 22, Brigadier Hannan Shah, on behalf of Begum Khaleda Zia, clearly stated to everyone, “Begum Khaleda Zia will not go to Saudi Arabia. She is ready to face any situation, but she will not leave the country.” On April 23, The Prothom Alo’s lead news was “Khaleda Zia is not leaving today.”

Sheikh Hasina then returned to the country on May 6. The ban on her return was lifted, too. Shortly after, a series of cases were filed against the two leaders and their family members.

On June 11, 2007, an article titled “The two leaders must step down” was published in The Prothom Alo newspaper. It is known that the editor of Prothom Alo later apologized to Sheikh Hasina for this article.